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CDC Releases Updated Estimates of U.S. HIV Transmission Rates

By Liz Highleyman

In a Research Letter in the November 22, 2008 advance online edition of the Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released updated estimates of U.S. HIV transmission rates.

These data follow a major revision of the U.S. HIV incidence (new infection) rate released in August ahead of the XVII International AIDS Conference and published in the August 6, 2008 Journal of the American Medical Association. Updated HIV prevalence (total infections) data were published in the October 3, 2008 issue of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

According to the latest report, the U.S. HIV transmission rate fell dramatically from 1977 to 2006:

92 transmissions per 100 persons living with HIV in 1980 (before the disease was recognized);

44 transmission per 100 persons in 1984 (4 years after the first reports of AIDS, but before the first HIV test);

8 transmissions per 100 persons in 1997 (the year after HAART including protease inhibitors came into widespread use);

Less than 5 per 100 persons in 2006.

This decline represents an 89% decrease since 1984 and a 33% decrease since 1997.




Source: D Holtgrave and others. Updated Annual HIV Transmission Rates in the United States,
1977-2006. JAIDS November 22, 2008 [epub ahead of print], via CDC web site.



According to the CDC authors, "Declines in HIV transmission rates reflect the success of prevention efforts across the U.S., on a national, community, and an individual level." Behavior change, increased HIV testing, and effective antiretroviral therapy have all likely played a role.

Below is the text of a "Dear Colleague" letter from Richard Wolitski, acting director of the CDC's Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, describing the new estimates, which are due to appear in print in early 2009. More information is available on the CDC's web site at http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance.

Dear Colleague:

In early 2009, the Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes (JAIDS) will publish a research letter authored jointly by researchers at Johns Hopkins University and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The letter will provide an updated estimate of the HIV transmission rate in the United States from 1977 through 2006 and offers an innovative way to measure the success of HIV prevention efforts nationwide. The on-line version of this letter was posted last week and can be found at www.jaids.com in the Publish Ahead of Print section for November 22, 2008.

The letter published in JAIDS explains how declines in the rate of HIV transmission represent a major success in HIV prevention. The analysis found that the rate of HIV transmission has declined by 89% since the peak of the epidemic and just in this past decade, the transmission rate has declined by 33%. This represents major successes in HIV testing and prevention that have resulted in reductions in the percentage and number of persons with undiagnosed HIV infection. It also likely reflects the effects of evidence-based behavioral interventions with people living with HIV and the increased availability of life-saving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). These data provide further evidence that prevention does work when we apply what we know, and underscore the need to make HIV testing and effective interventions available to those who are living with HIV and at-risk for contracting the virus.

It is important to note, however, that despite prevention successes, we are facing an uphill battle. Due to successful prevention efforts and treatments such as HAART, many more people are living longer with HIV than ever before. As the number of people living with HIV continues to grow, so will the need for prevention, medical care, and HIV treatment. Successfully fighting this battle will require continued commitment from all communities -- and from the nation as a whole.

To help you further understand the significance of these data, as well as explain in greater detail how the transmission rate serves as an indicator of the success of our collective HIV prevention efforts, CDC has developed a podcast and a fact sheet available at http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance. We hope that you will find this information useful to the HIV prevention work you do in your community.

Thank you for your continued commitment to HIV/AIDS prevention.

Sincerely,

Richard J. Wolitski, Ph.D.
Acting Director
Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention
National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention

12/12/08

Reference

DR Holtgrave, HI Hall, PH Rhodes, and RJ Wolitski. Updated Annual HIV Transmission Rates in the United States, 1977-2006. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. November 22, 2008 [Epub ahead of print].

Other sources

R. Wolitski. Dear Colleague Letter: Updated Estimate of the HIV Transmission Rate in the United States. December 4, 2008.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fact sheet: HIV Transmission Rates in the United States. December 2008