HIV Level After 4 Weeks of HAART Predicts Eventual Virologic Outcome

By Will Boggs, MD

Viral load after 4 weeks of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) predicts virologic outcome at 24 weeks in individuals infected with HIV, according to a report in the September 1st issue of the Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes.

Previous studies investigating the association between early measurements of viral load or early viral decay rate and longer-term virologic outcome have yielded inconsistent results, the authors explain.

Colette J. Smith from Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, and colleagues investigated whether viral loads measured after 4 weeks of HAART would predict virological suppression to below 50 copies/mL after 24 weeks of HAART in more than 650 previously antiretroviral-naïve patients.

Nearly three quarters of the patients had attained a viral load below 50 copies/mL by week 24 of treatment, the authors report, but only 51 patients (8%) reached this level during the first 4 weeks of therapy.

Patients attaining a low viral load at week 4 were significantly more likely to achieve virologic suppression at week 24 than patients with high viral load at week 4, the report indicates.

Eighty-six percent of the patients with viral load below 50 copies/mL at 4 weeks retained virologic suppression at 24 weeks, compared with only 61% of patients with a week 4 viral load between 1001 and 10,000 copies/mL.

Every 1-log higher viral load at week 4 was associated with a 3-fold decrease in the odds of attaining a viral load of less than 50 copies/mL at week 24, the researchers note. In a multivariate regression model, week 4 viral load was the only variable associated with the week 24 virologic outcome.

"Our study highlights that early measurements of viral load enables early prediction of virologic response to HAART and so will allow reasons for a poor early response to be investigated and addressed as necessary," Smith told Reuters Health.

"Reasons for a negative response may include adherence, tolerability, drug levels, and drug resistance," the investigators conclude. "Early prediction should enable these potential causes to be investigated and, if necessary, addressed."

10/27/04

J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2004;37:1155-1159.